Prediction of septic arthritis

In this study, we constructed an algorithm to determine the predicted probability of septic arthritis (septic hip or knee arthritis) based on six independent multivariate predictors. For example, if a male child has HRTI, Temperature > 37.5℃, blood test shows ESR > 20 mm/hr, CRP > 10 mg/L, when all these six factors are present, the probability of a septic joint is 99.65%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.94, demonstrating the excellent diagnostic performance of this set of six multivariate predictors for identifying septic arthritis (septic hip or knee arthritis). In the calibration curve of the prediction model, the calibration plot shows good prediction accuracy between the actual and predicted probabilities.